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AI, Grid Stress, and the Rising Cost of Cooling

Discover how AI-driven data centers are reshaping electricity demand, prices, and why smarter HVAC and efficiency are critical for sustainable growth.

Ava Montini

Feb 24, 2026

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How artificial intelligence is reshaping electricity markets and redefining efficiency inside data centers and real estate portfolios


Across North America, electricity load forecasts are being revised upward as hyperscale campuses, colocation expansions, and AI clusters come online. Grid operators are responding to a new reality: computing growth is accelerating faster than generation and transmission capacity.



Global data center electricity consumption could reach 1,000 terawatt-hours annually by 2030, roughly equivalent to the annual consumption of Japan. In the United States, PJM Interconnection has reported a sharp increase in capacity auction prices as new large-load customers, including AI-driven data centers, enter the interconnection queue.


Goldman Sachs forecasts a 175% surge in global data center power demand by 2030, a significant upward revision driven by the rapid adoption of AI infrastructure and intensive GPU requirements. This surge is expected to raise data centers’ share of U.S. electricity consumption to approximately 8% and contribute to a 10–15% increase in European power demand over the next decade.


AI Workloads Are Structurally Different



Previous digital expansion cycles, including early cloud adoption, drove steady and predictable growth. AI changes the profile of demand.


Training large language models requires sustained, high-density compute over extended periods. Inference activity multiplies that demand across millions of daily interactions. Rack densities are climbing. Thermal loads are intensifying. Mechanical systems are operating closer to their performance limits for longer durations.


Higher density translates directly into greater airflow sensitivity and tighter thermal tolerances. Small inefficiencies that were once negligible now compound materially across 8,760 operating hours per year.


Cooling Is a Major Line Item, Not a Support Function


In many modern facilities, mechanical systems account for 30 to 40 percent of total site energy consumption. That includes chillers, pumps, CRAH and CRAC units, and most consistently, fans.


Fan energy is particularly sensitive to system resistance. Based on affinity laws, fan power scales approximately with the cube of airflow. As static pressure increases, required fan energy rises disproportionately. Even modest increases in resistance can translate into meaningful increases in kilowatt draw.

Filtration is one of the most persistent contributors to system resistance. As filters load or when they have a high baseline pressure drop, fans compensate continuously. This is not a temporary event. It is a compounding operational penalty.


For a 20-megawatt data center, cooling and mechanical systems often account for 30 to 40 percent of total facility energy use. That equates to roughly 6 to 8 megawatts dedicated to cooling infrastructure.


Even modest efficiency improvements at this scale are financially meaningful. A 5 percent reduction in cooling-related fan energy would reduce load by approximately 300 to 400 kilowatts. At an electricity price of $0.10 per kilowatt-hour, that translates to roughly $260,000 to $350,000 in annual energy cost savings, before considering demand charges or capacity pricing exposure.

In regions with constrained supply or rising capacity costs, the economic value of that reduction increases further.


Grid Stress Is Changing the Economics of Efficiency


Electricity markets are tightening in regions experiencing concentrated data center growth. Capacity auctions in PJM have reflected the strain of new large-load interconnection requests. Transmission upgrades require time. Generation additions face permitting and capital constraints.


As reserve margins narrow, price volatility increases. Capacity charges, peak demand pricing, and long-term power purchase agreements are becoming more complex and more expensive.


For data center operators, efficiency becomes a hedge against volatility. Each kilowatt not consumed reduces exposure to price swings and capacity premiums. For REITs with diversified portfolios, it strengthens net operating income resilience across properties facing similar market pressures.

Scope 2 emissions reporting adds another layer of accountability. Institutional investors increasingly evaluate carbon intensity alongside operating performance. Mechanical efficiency directly influences both.

Energy savings are no longer incremental improvements. They are risk mitigation tools.


Designing for AI Without Expanding Energy Budgets


The strategic response does not require speculative technology. It requires disciplined optimization of existing systems.


Three priorities stand out:


1. Reduce persistent static pressure

Airflow resistance accumulates silently over time. Low-pressure, high-efficiency filtration technologies reduce baseline resistance while maintaining particulate capture performance. This lowers continuous fan energy and protects downstream equipment.


2. Optimize thermal management architecture

Variable-speed fans, containment strategies, and calibrated ventilation align airflow with actual load rather than worst-case assumptions. This stabilizes thermal performance under higher rack densities.


3. Institutionalize monitoring-based commissioning

Continuous diagnostics prevent efficiency drift. Small degradations in airflow or heat exchange are corrected before they become embedded in long-term energy profiles.



The Competitive Advantage of Thermodynamic Discipline


Artificial intelligence will continue to expand electricity demand. That trajectory is supported by credible projections from global energy authorities and financial institutions. The constraint is not computing ambition. It is infrastructure capacity.

Facilities that treat thermodynamic efficiency as core infrastructure rather than as an ancillary optimization will outperform in this environment. Lower static pressure, calibrated airflow, and disciplined mechanical management translate directly into reduced exposure to grid stress and electricity price escalation.

The economics are clear. As AI reshapes the demand curve, cooling efficiency becomes one of the most controllable variables in an increasingly uncontrollable market.


Data centers are powering intelligence.

Efficiency will determine who powers it profitably.

Carbon Emissions 101: Breaking Down Embodied, Operational, and More

  • Writer: Ava Montini
    Ava Montini
  • Dec 11, 2024
  • 5 min read

Updated: Dec 17, 2024

Carbon emissions touch every aspect of our lives—from the buildings we live into the devices we use. But, not all emissions are created equal.


While operational emissions from energy use often grab attention, the hidden impact of embodied carbon in materials is just as significant. In this blog, we’ll break down the difference between embodied and operational carbon and explore actionable ways to reduce emissions for a sustainable future.


What is Carbon and Why Does It Matter?

Carbon, in the context of climate change, refers to the greenhouse gases (GHGs) emitted into the atmosphere, primarily carbon dioxide (CO2). These emissions result from activities such as burning fossil fuels, deforestation, and industrial processes. GHGs trap heat in the atmosphere, contributing to global warming and its associated impacts, including rising sea levels, extreme weather events, and biodiversity loss. Humans emitted 36.8 billion metric tons of CO2 in 2022 alone, marking a new record for global emissions. A significant portion of these emissions stems from the energy sector, which accounts for 73% of global emissions, with electricity and heat production making up 42% of that share.





Deforestation and forest degradation account for approximately 11% of global carbon emissions annually. The loss of forests not only releases stored carbon but also reduces the planet’s ability to sequester new carbon. This dual impact underscores the urgent need for forest preservation and reforestation initiatives. To meet the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) goal of limiting global warming to 1.5°C, global CO2 emissions must decline by about 45% from 2010 levels by 2030 and reach net zero by 2050.


Reducing carbon emissions is essential to achieving global climate goals, such as the Paris Agreement's target of limiting global warming to 1.5°C. This requires a comprehensive understanding of the different categories of carbon emissions and how they interconnect, paving the way for effective mitigation strategies.


To better understand how carbon emissions are generated, let’s examine two key contributors: embodied and operational carbon.


Embodied Carbon

The Hidden Footprint


Embodied carbon refers to the CO2 emissions associated with the production, transportation, and construction of materials and goods. Unlike operational carbon, which occurs during the use phase of a product or building, embodied carbon is "locked in" from the start.


Lifecycle Stage

Embodied carbon includes emissions from raw material extraction, manufacturing, and supply chain logistics. It is typically fixed and cannot be reduced once the product is created.


Primary Sectors Affected

Construction, manufacturing, and technology production.


Why It Matters

Embodied carbon often represents a significant share of total emissions, especially in industries reliant on energy-intensive materials. The World Green Building Council reports that embodied carbon contributes up to 50% of a building’s total lifecycle emissions.


  • Skanska, a global construction firm, has implemented low-carbon concrete alternatives and tracked embodied carbon through digital tools to align with its net-zero goals.

  • Apple continues to prioritize energy efficiency by optimizing HVAC systems across its facilities. By implementing low-pressure HVAC filters and energy-efficient solutions, Apple reduces the energy required for ventilation, cutting operational carbon emissions. These upgrades contribute to Apple’s commitment to becoming carbon neutral across its entire value chain by 2030.


Actionable Steps

  1. Use low-carbon materials such as recycled steel, bamboo, or cross-laminated timber.

  2. Conduct lifecycle assessments (LCAs) to identify high-impact areas.

  3. Foster partnerships with suppliers that prioritize sustainability.

  4. Incorporate modular designs to reduce material waste and embodied carbon.


Operational Carbon

The Active Emissions


Operational carbon refers to the emissions generated during the use phase of a product or building. These emissions result primarily from energy consumption for heating, cooling, lighting, and operating machinery.


Lifecycle Stage

Operational carbon is ongoing and occurs throughout the usable life of a building, product, or system.


Energy Sources

Fossil fuels, grid electricity, and renewable energy significantly influence operational carbon levels.


Major Contributors

Commercial buildings, data centers, and transportation systems are key sources of operational carbon.


Why It Matters

Operational carbon is the dominant contributor to global emissions in many industries. The International Energy Agency (IEA) notes that buildings account for approximately 30% of global final energy consumption and 26% of global energy-related CO₂ emissions.


A substantial share of this energy use is attributed to heating and cooling systems. Specifically, space heating and cooling, along with hot water, are estimated to account for roughly half of global energy consumption in buildings. This highlights the significant impact of heating and cooling systems on building energy consumption and emissions.


Actionable Steps

  1. Transition to renewable energy sources such as solar or wind power.

  2. Implement energy-efficient appliances, HVAC systems, and LED lighting.

  3. Leverage building management systems (BMS) to optimize energy use in real time.

  4. Set energy benchmarks and continuously monitor performance.


Beyond Embodied and Operational Carbon: Other Key Terms


1. Carbon Offset

Refers to compensating for emissions by investing in projects that reduce or remove CO2 from the atmosphere, such as reforestation or renewable energy initiatives.

  • Delta Airlines invests in carbon offset programs, including reforestation projects in Kenya, as part of its commitment to becoming the first carbon-neutral airline.


2. Carbon Intensity

Measures the amount of CO2 emitted per unit of energy or production. This metric helps businesses evaluate and improve efficiency.

  • Tesla measures the carbon intensity of its manufacturing processes to ensure sustainability across its electric vehicle lifecycle.


3. Sequestered Carbon

Describes carbon captured and stored in natural or artificial reservoirs. Forests, soil, and biochar are examples of natural carbon sinks.


4. Scope 1, 2, and 3 Emissions (from the Greenhouse Gas Protocol)

Scope 1

Direct emissions from company-owned resources.


Scope 2

Indirect emissions from purchased energy.


Scope 3

Emissions from a company’s value chain, including suppliers and end-users.

Strategies for a Holistic Carbon Reduction Plan

To create impactful carbon reduction strategies, organizations must address both embodied and operational carbon and then their broader carbon footprint.


Here are some tips:

  1. Adopt Lifecycle Assessments (LCAs): Evaluate the total carbon impact of products or projects from cradle to grave.

  2. Invest in Innovation: Support research and development for low-carbon technologies, such as carbon capture and storage (CCS).

  3. Set Science-Based Targets: Align emission reduction goals with the latest climate science.

  4. Engage Stakeholders: Collaborate with suppliers, customers, and employees to foster a culture of sustainability.

  5. Leverage Digital Solutions: Use AI and IoT technologies to monitor and optimize energy usage, reducing operational carbon.

  6. Adopt Circular Economy Practices: Design products for reuse and recycling to minimize waste and embodied carbon.


Embodied carbon reveals the hidden costs of our built environment, while operational carbon highlights ongoing emissions challenges. By taking a lifecycle approach and addressing emissions at every stage, we can pave the way for a sustainable, net-zero future.


And business leaders play a pivotal role in this transition. Prioritizing sustainability in supply chains, investing in renewable energy, and adopting innovative practices allows companies to drive change that benefits both the planet and their bottom line.


As awareness grows, the responsibility to act lies with every sector of society. From adopting renewable energy solutions to rethinking material choices, the path forward demands innovation, collaboration, and a commitment to reducing carbon footprints.

Explore expert insights, stay up-to-date with industry events, and gain a deeper understanding of the developments shaping the built environment.

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